1. Aquagraph

    Aquagraph Jul 30, 2020 7:37am

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    Interesting the part about brands designing watches to appease 'enthusiasts', which then don't sell because they don't appeal to enough people.
     
  2. imagwai

    imagwai Jul 30, 2020 8:26am

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    The thing is, unless you're an "enthusiast", you're probably going to be very happy with a £100 quartz Seiko and consider a luxury watch superfluous anyway. Maybe it should be rephrased as "there aren't enough enthusiasts"?
     
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  3. abrod520

    abrod520 Jul 30, 2020 8:43am

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    Or maybe the runs of those "enthusiast" watches should be a bit smaller so they don't end up sitting in display cases...
     
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  4. Marcos Alvarenga

    Marcos Alvarenga Jul 30, 2020 4:06pm

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    The same phenomenom is taking away the car industry. Watches and sport cars are losing theyr appeal to the young people.

    In the future being a car enthusiast would be like being a hunter today: it looks like something stuck in the past.
     
  5. THJunkie

    THJunkie Jul 30, 2020 5:00pm

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    Is the answer not simple? Do a ‘kickstarter’ type campaign where enthusiasts ‘vote’ for designs based on a few options. The ‘vote’ requires a deposit. Then they make the right number. Think of it like ‘built to order’ Speedy Tuesday type of thing. That way they don’t have to guess if they need to make 50 or 1860 of an LE. The per unit cost might be higher that way, but likely offset for the purchaser by better value retention.
     
  6. THJunkie

    THJunkie Jul 30, 2020 5:09pm

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    i also think that a big aspect of this is affordability. Gen Y and Z likely don’t have the disposable income at least not due to Gen X and Boomers. Yes there will be general trends of less interest in some things and more interest in newer items or market models, but for Other aspects like wages vs cost of living, decreased social mobility and inflated real estate prices will also play a part. Wage inflation has been low for most people since the GFC, but cost of living has shot up. That must mean less available for luxury items for the majority.

    It’d be interesting to know the makeup of this forum’s core cadre Or other hardcore watch forums. I’d be most are >40 and in the higher socio-economic brackets. A hobby involving regularly buy items costing £100s never mind £1000s is going to be limited in terms of barriers of entry, I’m not sure the internet is to blame. It is WHAT the brands that makes and in what quantities that is the issue. Now HOW they are engaged with the customer.
     
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  7. Aquagraph

    Aquagraph Jul 30, 2020 5:31pm

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    Ah, but say you have a product that sells for £5000, but actually costs *£500* to make. Worst case scenario you have to sell at the outlet for £3000, you're still making a fortune.
     
  8. THJunkie

    THJunkie Jul 30, 2020 5:42pm

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    but you generally have to wait quite a while to get that money in. Accelerate the pace, and well, outlet becomes new new GM. Long term if the market is shrinking they have to scale back the range and cut production. Oversupply is oversupply.
     
  9. Aquagraph

    Aquagraph Jul 30, 2020 5:44pm

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    Yes, but have you noticed how quickly the watches are getting to the outlet lately? The Connecteds and the Heuer 01s went from the shops direct to the outlets and the Indy 500 watches were on the website last week, now they are in BV.
     
  10. THJunkie

    THJunkie Jul 30, 2020 6:05pm

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    Ok having listened to the whole thing rather than just reacting to the headline.
    Conclusion - much of the watch industry has been slow to adapt, and some have made some mistakes.

    Interesting article. This chap presents very eloquently and seems well researched, if somewhat dry.
     
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  11. Marcos Alvarenga

    Marcos Alvarenga Jul 30, 2020 6:15pm

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    The proof is the fact that the top seller of watches today is a premium smartphone maker, not a Premium watch maker.
     
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  12. THJunkie

    THJunkie Jul 30, 2020 6:22pm

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    That was precisely my point about ‘acceleration’ - i’ve noticed that the product cycle is getting shorter. I even commented on it with regard to the 160th LE. I’d still wager we see a few of them land in BV one day.
    But if more and more people cotton on to that. Then the sales at AD/RRP will fall - people will wait for the outlet deals. Then the demand will drop and the situation will get worse.

    imbalance in supply and demand will always cause disproportional shifts in value perception - which is what drives the ‘street’ price of any commodity item - from houses to cars to watches.

    ‘they’ simply need to get better at judging demand. Plenty moan on forums about this and that. But who cares if they don’t out their money where their keyboard is?

    the ‘internet’ is not to blame. It is the glacial pace of adaptation by the brands.

    i’ve not been ‘studying’ the market for that long as I only got back ‘into’ watches <2 years ago. But so far i strikes me:

    There’s a lot of smoke and mirrors on cost vs. Sale price (bullshit about history, in house movements etc).

    most Brands have far too many models and variants - evidenced by so many ‘discounts’ and GM flooding.

    Some brands have fuelled the speculator market - and this has greatly distorted the market. Others have jacked up prices on the tailcoats of that trend - but forgotten basic supply and demand economics.

    the watch market as a whole is still over saturated in terms of many brands - mostly offering much the same product. And the conglomeration of brands and control by a few large holding companies further distorts the market.

    most of this has little to to with the internet - but it does give the consumer a lot more access to make an informed decision. The issue is how the brands are reacting to that.

    and the tagline in the article actually related to a very niche area. A small dove watch! Laughable really.
     
  13. calibre11user

    calibre11user Jul 31, 2020 12:05am

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    Fixed.
     
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  14. Anthony.R

    Anthony.R Jul 31, 2020 12:31am

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    The famous $5500 Travel Clock..
    Haha give us a break.
     
  15. Jim Dollares

    Jim Dollares Jul 31, 2020 2:04am

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    In what way has Hodinkee ruined watches? Yes there are a lot of unsecure people who cares more about speculating and the status of wearing Rolex because they want others to think they are "cool" and give the impression that they have a lot of cash in the bank, these people seem to be heavily influenced by Hodinkee but whats the harm in that really? I imagine those types of people are also the ones buying expensive wine just because someone else said it was good, they take up hunting because "thats what nice folks do" etc
     
  16. abrod520

    abrod520 Jul 31, 2020 1:46pm

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    Values of vintage watches have shot upward after Hodinkee does a feature on them. Heuers and old Speedmasters are now out of the range of many buyers because Hodinkee decided to do a big feature.

    These features are often followed closely by large amounts of these watches being offered at auction, auctions that are run by friends of the people at Hodinkee, or even former employees...
     
  17. calibre11user

    calibre11user Jul 31, 2020 1:50pm

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    Here are my observations from reading Hodinkee almost on a daily basis since 2015.

    1. They are almost solely responsible for enthusiasts' obsession for in-house movements. This narrow focus has forced manufactures to spend millions on developing their own movements, which in turn drive the prices of watches up beyond what's justifiable for the majority of watch buyers.

    2. They focus too much on Rolex and Patek. At every Baselworld, their first reports are on Rolex releases. They even have videos detailing the history of specific Rolex model lines. No wonder Swatch Group left Baselworld. Why should they spend money to exhibit at Baselworld when they always end up as secondary interests to Hodinkee? Obviously, Swatch Group's departure started a chain effect of departures.

    3. They disproportionately highlight auctions. If I were to read Hodinkee exclusively, I would think that $1M timepieces were the norm rather than the exception. This concentration only pours fuel onto the fire of watch snobs who comment on watches they will never own. These snobs insist on 36mm watches with in-house movements and black-polished anglage on the baseplates. Nothing else will do.

    Here's the upshot: Prior to the pandemic, there was rising interest in watches in general, so the pie was growing with Rolex having an outsized portion. Now, the pie is shrinking and Rolex still has an outsized portion. The two-century old Swiss watch industry could dissipate if the pandemic continues for another year. Who will care about Swiss luxury watches when you can't work and/or you can't go outside and show off your watch?
     
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  18. Aquagraph

    Aquagraph Jul 31, 2020 2:26pm

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    These people don't wear their watches outside though, they keep them in a safe because they are investments.
     
  19. El Matarife

    El Matarife Jul 31, 2020 3:24pm

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    Never save anything for best.
     
  20. THJunkie

    THJunkie Jul 31, 2020 3:52pm

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    The plus side of all the ‘Rolex and vintage hype’ is that the more money spent on those, then the less spent on everything else in the market. This beans more bargains! Every cloud etc.